The Manufacturer team travelled to visit the Worcester Bosch factory where they are manufacturing boilers, heat pumps and hybrids.
For the first time, in 2024, Worcester Bosch has a complete range of gas boilers which come with a breadth of value classes in the UK market, as well as heat pumps and cooling air conditioning systems. With the UK aiming for net zero by 2050, the government has laid out some high expectations for the decarbonisation of homes. Martyn Bridges, Director of Technical Services and Conor Evans, Director of Product Management UK explained more.
Heat pumps and net zero
Heating and hot water account for around 14% of UK greenhouse gas emissions and are a motivator for why the Worcester Bosch team spends time and effort trying to maximize the sustainability credentials of its products.
Right now, in the UK there are around 22 million fossil fuel boilers in use and this year, around 1.5 million were sold to market. This is a stark comparison compared to the 60,000 heat pumps which were produced for market this year.
As the UK aims for net zero by 2050, the government has suggested that the country will need a heat pump market size of 600,000 per year by 2028. This expectation is ten times that of the current market size within just four years, as well as the line in the sand banning all fossils fuels. If the market for heat pumps continues at its current rate, Worcester Bosch predicts it would 400 years to hit this target, instead of four.
When applied correctly heat pumps can achieve up to 500% efficiency, using renewable electricity and completely decarbonising a home’s heating system. However, it requires two key elements, money and skills. As well as the government’s current proposals, there is a lack of accounting for insulation, spacing and noise constraints. For Worcester Bosch, it is a difficult task to install these heat pumps into UK properties at scale.
The real cost of heat pumps
Heat pumps are expensive. Even though the government is offering up to £7,500 to those homes who want them. Not only that, but they have equally high installation costs and often require system changes in the property.
The experts at Worcester Bosch explain: Within six hours you can change a gas boiler to a new combi boiler in the same place within the home. With a heat pump, the homeowner will likely need new radiators, pipework, install manifolds and buffers as well as domestic hot water systems into the property that were not there previously. Even though the heat pump element inside the property is small, it requires space outside for other parts. This causes many barriers for people in flats, without gardens or those who do not want to give up their outdoor space.
The biggest resistance that Worcester Bosch is seeing right now is from those currently with a combi boiler. There are currently 20 million homes with combi boilers in the UK and all would have had their 300-litre cylinder removed when this was installed. However, for the installation of a heat pump, the homes will require a hot water system.
All this restructuring carries a cost that can be overcome, but it causes disruption. Due to this, a customer needs to want to do it, rather than be told or encouraged through financial incentives.
The government actioned the Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project where 750 pumps were installed into UK homes free of charge and recently, a two-year performance report was released. Worcester Bosch said that the report shows on average the heat pumps were running at half the level of performance they were designed to run at. This means that the customers are now seeing twice the running costs they were expecting when they agreed to have them installed. This is the comparison to today’s baseline which is the gas boiler.
Installing heat pumps requires a high level of skills and now, there is low confidence of that skill level with installers. One of the challenges will be how to engage the 180,000 gas boiler installers out there and retrain those to install heat pumps as an alternative.
The national grid
Regarding the electrification of heating systems, it is known that the national grid is not currently equipped for this and there is an investment plan to ensure that it will be.
Worcester Bosch is seeing that the first users of heat pumps in villages are being billed again after installation for local infrastructure upgrades which range from £20,000 to £25,000. This only reflects how nationally we are not yet prepared for this scale of shift.
Hybrid solution
Unfortunately, the heat pump market is capped. To the 1.5 million gas boilers sold last year, 80% of those were distressed purchases, meaning they were purchased due to the previous gas boiler breaking down. Those who needed them were without hot water and could have a direct replacement fitted the very next day. For a heat pump installation, on average, it takes 12 weeks from first contact of interest to a fully commissioned pump, therefore ruling out the distressed purchase section of the market due to the fact that people cannot go without hot water or heating for that long.
As such, Worcester Bosch is now turning its focus to a potential solution – hybrid heat pumps. According to its research, hybrid heat pumps have the potential to deliver 80% of the coverage that a standalone heat pump would give. This means 80% decarbonisation, with as little as 20% of the total installation cost. It avoids many of the barriers that can occur with regular heat pumps and at a much lower price.
The hybrid heat pump is designed for 55% of the peak load rather than 100%, which comfortably gives the customer 80% coverage over the year. In most cases, the radiators and pipework can remain the same as well as not needing any additional manifolds or low temperature valves. The installer can bolt the hybrid heat pump onto the existing system, removing the disruption that comes with fitting a regular heat pump system. Unlike a standard heat pump, the hybrid does not require any installation inside the property, such as the hot water system; it just needs the existing gas loop and to fit the heat pump outside.
The hybrid heat pump is also robust in terms of performance as it has a gas boiler to pick up any slack such as very cold temperatures or if the user needs to heat the home rapidly. Therefore, costs are managed from a running perspective. The Worcester Bosch hybrid systems can tell the homeowner the cheapest way to heat the property at that time and optimise the two systems to run effectively and efficiently.
Discussions with customers of Worcester Bosch has also seen that the hybrid heat pump system enables distress purchase. If a gas boiler breaks down, the customer can replace it and three weeks later install the hybrid heat pump. Therefore, hybrid heat pumps are potentially the answer to the decarbonisation of heat in the UK.
On the mass market
To allow the hybrid heat pumps to be rolled out to the mass market, first, they need recognition. The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS), an internationally recognised quality and safety scheme for small-scale renewable energy technologies, are now recongising them to have 80% decarbonisation compared to a standalone heat pump. The second is safeguards for performance and misuse. The installation of hybrid pumps is of little use if customers continue to use their gas boiler 100% of the time, as this will have no effect on decarbonisation.
As mentioned, traditional heat pumps receive a £7,500 subsidiary, so Worcester Bosch believes that if a hybrid can still provide 80% of decarbonisation, it should also be entitled to a percentage of the incentive for consumers who want to take that step.
Across Europe, hybrids are also being introduced now. The Netherlands is looking to mandate hybrids as a minimum replacement standard by 2026 and Germany are now subsidising hybrid heat pumps heavily.
Alternatively, there’s a proposal currently to remove upgrades and requirements needed for heat pump installation. Presently, if you have some outstanding installation recommendations on your EPC, it is a requirement to get them done before being eligible for the grant from the government, which only makes the process time longer.
In addition to physical barriers, there is bad press around heat pumps which is making it a hard sale for companies like Worcester Bosch to convince homeowners that they are the future of home heating.
As a brand, it tries not to get involved in the pros and cons of the product but can only advise its customers on what is best for them. The division is currently investing €1bn in heat development and manufacturing, which is a huge sum while it battles against consumer interest and negative press.
Worcester Bosch is also investing into the building of a new factory in Poland where it is looking to produce the next generations of heat pumps so it can be prepared for when mass market adoption takes place – if it does. The UK needs to be realistic in its expectations and requirements if it wants to jump from 60,000 to 600,000 in just four years.
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